Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Current prognostic models of dementia have had limited success in consistently identifying at-risk individuals.

We aimed to develop and validate a novel dementia risk score (DRS) using the UK Biobank cohort.

METHODS: After randomly dividing the sample into a training (n=166,487, 80%) and test set (n=41,621, 20%), logistic LASSO regression and standard logistic regression were used to develop the UKB-DRS.

RESULTS: The score consisted of age, sex, education, apolipoprotein E4 genotype, a history of diabetes, stroke, and depression, and a family history of dementia.

The UKB-DRS had good-to-strong discrimination accuracy in the UKB hold-out sample (AUC [95%CI]=0.79 [0.77, 0.82]) and in an external dataset (Whitehall II cohort, AUC [95%CI]=0.83 [0.79,0.87]).

The UKB-DRS also significantly outperformed four published risk scores (i.e., Australian National University Alzheimer’s Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia score (CAIDE), Dementia Risk Score (DRS), and the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS) across both test sets.

CONCLUSION: The UKB-DRS represents a novel easy-to-use tool that could be used for routine care or targeted selection of at-risk individuals into clinical trials.

Citations

Melis Anatürk, Raihaan Patel, Georgios Georgiopoulose , Danielle Newby , Anya Topiwala, Ann-Marie G. de Lange, James H. Cole, Michelle Jansen, Klaus P. Ebmeier , Archana Singh-Manouxl, Mika Kivimäkim, Sana Surib. Development and Validation of a Novel Dementia Risk Score in the UK Biobank Cohort. PsyArxiv

Sponsorship: Supported by the NIHR

DOI: http://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/5yvjr

URI: https://www.oxfordhealth.nhs.uk/orka/title/development-and-validation-of-a-novel-dementia-risk-score-in-the-uk-biobank-cohort/